With the first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine finally being distributed, vaccines are top of mind. While the arrival of a vaccine to fight the global pandemic could certainly be the first sign that “normalcy” will return, it may not be the whole “cure” that Disney World needs.
Having a vaccine isn’t like flipping a light switch and the world goes back to normal — the same can be said for Disney World too. When it comes down to it, it may take years before consumer confidence and expendable income are back to where they were in 2019, and that can alter when we could once again see “pre-pandemic” Disney World.
Once a vaccine is widely available, will guests come back to Disney World? If so, how long will it take? Sure, guests are returning every day (and the parks have been filling up to their set capacity on multiple occasions), but will guests return in numbers akin to 2019 and prior? Let’s take a look at three major reasons why a vaccine could be the start, but not the final requirement to “cure” Disney World.
The vaccine could have a slow rollout.
While two major brands of vaccine have been approved for immediate use, Pfizer and Moderna, it doesn’t mean the majority of the general public will all have access to a vaccine right away, as we’re already seeing. According to the New York Times, most Americans should not expect to have access to a vaccine until May or June of 2021. And then begins the long process of actually getting an entire country vaccinated — assuming people agree to get the vaccine — and that could take some time.
All signs point to everyone needing to receive two doses of the vaccine spaced roughly a month apart, which is a slow timeline. From the initial rollout of the vaccine to the present, just over a month’s time, healthcare workers around the country are still in the process of getting their first doses of the vaccine in some areas. In others, frontline workers have been treated with both doses and now vaccines are ready to distribute to high-risk elderly populations. Accessibility of the vaccine will vary wildly by location for the initial months of distribution, making it difficult to pinpoint where we stand in terms of vaccinating the population.
Then there’s a question of how many Americans WILL actually get vaccinated, at least in the short-term future. In a New York Times article, Dr. Anthony Fauci talked about life getting back to normal by late 2021. But that comes with a big asterisk. That timetable will depend on at least 75 percent of the country getting vaccinated promptly. And according to a recent Gallup poll, six in ten Americans — less than Fauci’s threshold for normalcy to begin to return by late 2021 — would agree to be vaccinated.
This could put Disney in a precarious spot. In order to swiftly return to a more “normal” Disney World — one without as much restriction — they could potentially require guests to be vaccinated. As a private company, Disney World could ask for proof of vaccination before allowing guests on property. Whether they would do this is as yet unknown.
Imagine walking into Disney World knowing everyone there was vaccinated against the virus, yourself included. Would you feel safer? Would Disney feel they were at lower risk for liability? While the chances of that happening seem low, many were surprised that Disney required face masks or temperature checks when this all started! We’ve learned in 2020, anything is possible and on the table. The same appears to hold true in 2021.
Click here to read more about how Disney World would most likely need a vaccine widely available before normal operations can resume.
Consumer confidence may be slow to return to normal.
Even with a vaccine, consumer confidence could take a while to bounce back. There is certainly a level of demand for travel already, as Disney World was nearly at their set capacity for Thanksgiving and the Christmas holiday seasons. Airports around the country were also packed with holiday travelers, despite nationwide surges in cases. Disney also shared in their earnings in November that the remainder of 2020 was currently booked at approximately 77% capacity.
However, some level of demand doesn’t immediately indicate that the tourism industry is roaring back to 2019 levels once a vaccine is widely available. There may still be a percentage of people out there who simply don’t want to travel right now, and don’t feel comfortable getting on an airplane, staying in a hotel, or visiting a destination where they cross paths with thousands of strangers.
However, there are some signs that could indicate that while tourism won’t return to “normal” right away, it could get close. During the park closures, two thirds of our readers said they would feel comfortable visiting Disney ASAP. More recently, the New York Times reported that U.S. air travel has hit record highs since the pandemic began, causing concern amongst health officials but also signaling that the public could be ready to return to traveling as soon as possible.
Despite a certain level of demand, Disney can only accommodate so much given current health and safety guidelines. Remember, even though Disney World has been filling their parks to capacity, that capacity is currently still set at 35%. That cap is in part due to social distancing guidelines. However, Disney may discover that once they’re able to raise capacity further down the road, they may not fill the parks quite like they did before the pandemic.
During the closures in 2020 we shared how travel analysts predict that the ramifications of this crisis could be six or seven times worse than they were after 9/11, which could mean a slow climb back to normal crowd levels for Disney.
Is Disney World safe to visit right now? Read our thoughts here.
Many Americans are facing new hardships.
Finally, remember that in 2020, MANY people have experienced the loss of income, a job, a business, or, tragically, the loss of a loved one. For many, a Disney World vacation will simply not be feasible for the time being, at least not in the way that many families used to travel.
Regardless of discounts and deals, a family vacation to Disney World is a pricey investment. And if there’s less expendable income to go around, travel will more than likely be among the first things that get cut from a family’s budget each year. Finances combined with insecurities around traveling make simply foregoing planning that trip to Disney World much more of a possibility.
Click here to read about how Disney is investing $1 billion in health and safety measures in 2021.
Policies and projects are in flux.
It’s also important to note that the pandemic may have already caused irreversible changes at the Disney parks.
Other than financial and travel ramifications, the attacks on 9/11 led to several policy changes that have become a routine part of our trips to Disney World, including increased security and flight restrictions that resulted in the parks becoming “no-fly zones.”
So far during the past year, we’ve seen updated security systems implemented at the parks that encourage low- or no-touch policies, mandatory temperature checks for all guests entering theme parks or hotel restaurants, and updated policies that encourage no-touch solutions like encouraging cashless payments throughout the property, requiring mobile ordering in parks and hotels, and promoting online check-in for hotels. Some or all of these policies may be permanent going forward despite a vaccine being available.
September 11th, 2001 also led to Disney making major decisions about upcoming projects. At the time, Disney was planning on including a second phase of Pop Century Resort known as “The Legendary Years” which would represent the 1900’s – 1940’s, but the sharp reduction in tourism immediately following 9/11 forced Disney to stick to one phase of the hotel, and many of the buildings were left uncompleted. The location of “The Legendary Years” eventually became Disney’s Art of Animation Resort, which opened in 2012.
We’ve already seen Disney push opening timeframes for several upcoming projects, and some seem to be falling off the radar completely — especially in the massive EPCOT transformation project. The Star Wars Hotel was supposed to open reservations in 2020, but there has been no movement on that front. And we also have seen projects like the TRON coaster in Magic Kingdom seemingly be pushed to 2022 instead of 2021.
So if a vaccine can’t “cure” Disney World this year…what will?
While Disney World has reopened all four theme parks and many of their hotels, with reduced capacity, they still stand to operate at a loss. In fact, one analyst predicted that 2021 could be another “lost year” for the Walt Disney Company, and they may not see their finances fully recover until 2023. We can already see several signs from 2020 that Disney has a long road to recovery ahead, even once a vaccine becomes readily available.
For starters, not all of the resorts have reopened. Several of the resorts that did not reopen initially include Disney’s Port Orleans Resorts (French Quarter and Riverside), Disney’s All-Star Resorts (Sports, Movies, and Music), Disney’s Beach Club Resort, Disney’s BoardWalk Inn, Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort, Disney’s Animal Kingdom Lodge — Jambo House, and Disney’s Wilderness Lodge. (Though many of these resorts do have Disney Vacation Club rooms available for booking.)
Then we saw drastic layoffs that, by the first half of fiscal 2021, will have impacted 32,000 Cast Members across the Disney parks. Many of these positions could take time to come back if they return at all, as Disney continues to mitigate their expenses and restructure their priorities as they recover financially from the billions lost due to the park closures.
In the long run, it seems likely that the Walt Disney Company will come out of this global pandemic standing on its own two feet but it needs time to do so. They have recovered from previous crises that impacted travel, like 9/11 in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008.
However, neither of those events caused long-term closures of the parks and resorts like we saw last year. That resulted in a $6.9 billion loss in operating income for the fiscal year. The scale of this current crisis is unlike anything faced previously not just for Disney but for the current global community.
The real challenge ahead won’t necessarily be when they can bring FastPass+ back or when character meet and greets can return. The challenge won’t even truly be when their face mask mandates can be lifted. In the years to come, Disney will need to seriously grapple with the fact that consumers might be traveling less and that vacationing priorities may be different going forward. The world is changing following everything that has happened and Disney World will need to change with it. A vaccine is the first huge step towards that happening. But don’t expect everything to return to “normal” overnight.
Click here to read about an analyst’s prediction that 2021 could be another “lost year” for Disney.
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Do you have an upcoming vacation to Disney World planned? If you don’t have a trip planned, when do you think you’ll make plans to travel again? Let us know in the comments.
Robin says
ThinkCritically, What does this mean? “ Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-21 influenza season. Data from previous seasons are available on FluView Interactive.”
I don’t want to pass along misinformation as you suggested. This is right in the CDC website.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm
NC-Dad says
Donna wrote:
“I cannot believe any “healthcare workers” do not want the vaccine or believe it is effective. These folks are obviously not doctors or nurses with a BS or MS in nursing or those words would not have come out of their mouths. This is science folks!”
You discount others’ opinions and research because they are not doctors. Are YOU a doctor? if not, your opinion is just as valuable or valueless as anyone else’s.
Your bias is showing when you write that you “cannot believe.” Your BELIEF or disbelief is NOT a valid answer to others’ research. Your feelings don’t matter.
The FACT IS that es, healthcare workers HAVE either refused to take the vaccine or are waiting until better testing data is available. Again, your disbelief doesn’t make these FACTS any less real.
Everyone has the same right to enjoy a vacation they paid for, as a gay couple has to have a Christian baker bake a cake for them. Ponder that.
Cathy says
I live in Tampa and I go to the parks twice a week. I think Disney is doing a great job and I feel totally safe. I wear the mask because it is their rule however you are outside most of the time and I really don’t think it is necessary outside however rules are rules. The vaccine is not mandatory for the people of Florida. If you want it you can get it. Many people I know have had it already because 65 and over can get it here. I would be surprised if Disney makes the vaccine mandatory for parks. Maybe for their cruises but I would really be surprised if they did it for the parks. We will be wearing masks for a long time to come even with the vaccine so people just have to make the decision that is best for them. For me I will continue going as I have an annual pass and I will enjoy the lack of crowds while it lasts. It is still magical to me. Love the cavalcades and the entertainment they have been trying to offer to keep it magical. Also love the festivals at Epcot. For us Disney is an awesome spot during corona. Sometimes we just drive up to Disney Springs for lunch or dinner. They are still monitoring the number of people going in and out of their stores so I feel totally safe there.
Jules says
NC-Dad says: Everyone has the same right to enjoy a vacation they paid for, as a gay couple has to have a Christian baker bake a cake for them. Ponder that.
If Disney was making a distinction between guests, requiring some to wear masks for entrance while others were allowed to come in without them, you might have a point. If Disney refused to let some mask-wearing parties enter while refusing other mask-wearing parties admission when all parties were meeting other entrance requirements, you might have a point. Disney isn’t picking and choosing which guests have to follow their policies. So you don’t have a point. No one has a right to visit a privately owned destination on their own terms, not the destination’s terms. People have the right to decide whether or not they wish to comply with a destination’s requirements. If they don’t like those requirements, they have the right to take their vacation dollars elsewhere.
Robin says
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is if they require guests to be vaccinated, I expect they would require Cast Members to be vaccinated. I believe this would be damaging to the employment numbers if businesses implemented such a standard. Would it also open the possibility of lawsuits? I don’t see this working very well.
Mikey says
To Robin: Disney is a private company. They have the right to mandate health requirements, this is not the same as racial or gender discrimination
philip baker says
From the UK. Looking forward to our return to Disney if vaccination is required then i am getting one. I am waiting to be called for mine and will get one, when called. Hopefully the entire UK will have the chance to get a vaccine this year. To anyone worried about vaccination, i always say have you ever heard of smallpox or polio. Common diseases not so long ago but eradicated by vaccines. That is the choice, look up what these illnesses did to people and then ask is the vaccine risk worth taking.
I am not sure Disney need worry to much as people i talk to who have been to Disney can not wait to go back and people who were thinking about going for the first time have been saving to go as they have not been anywhere for a year. Many will travel when they get the chance and when some of the Disney benefits return. If parks are a little quieter then for those who do go it will be an unexpected bonus.
Bellamouse says
Why won’t you approve my comments? Just gotta love people who think they need to CENSOR opinions they don’t like! Unreal the world we live in now.
Billynp says
Once the vaccine is readily available to all, there should be no restrictions on anyone. If you decide not to get the vaccine then you should live with the consequences. I am a healthcare worker and I haven’t encountered anyone that is refusing the vaccine. Most, including myself, have already completed both doses. Restrictions or not, My family and I will continue to enjoy Disney as often as we can.
Jen Barker says
Also from the UK. Totally agree with comments above. Add to this Spanish Flu in 1918 and the Plague, wiping out half the world’s population at the time. Very different story if there had been a vaccine. Just can’t understand the resistance to the folk of the US in not wanting a vaccine. There is no risk and only benefit to the rest of the population. Would be a good idea for Disney to insist on seeing proof of vaccination before coming into the Park but doubt they will as they have already been knocked enough by the Parks closing and limited admissions. In the UK we’ve already vaccinated ten million people but we need everyone else to do likewise so we can return to normal.
Gill Stephens says
We are DVC members from the UK & visit Disney most years for the past 30 yrs. We’re desperate to go back & visit whenever we are allowed to by either Governments.
However, if you’re telling people that they can only come if vaccinated, we won’t be coming. I’m afraid a vaccine that’s been rushed through in 8mnths (as opposed to 15 yrs, a normal trial) won’t be put into our arms until I’ve seen more evidence that it’s safe…at the moment there isn’t any.
I’m sure there are more like me. So sorry Disney, we’ll miss you terribly but the vaccines more worrying to me & my family than the illness.
Ronald says
I am very upset that Disney is eliminating THE MAGICAL EXPRESS. The magic starts when I book the reservation for the family. The magic continues when we receive our name tags for THE MAGICAL EXPRESS. The magic continues when we land in Orlando and begin walking to THE MAGICAL EXPRESS. We first see Mickey and then we see the Disney Buses. The magic continues as we board the bus. Everyone is HAPPY and Laughing watching the film and answering the quizzes. We do not see or luggage from the time we flew to Disney until we return to our room after a long day at the park. When leaving we give our luggage to the bell hop and forget about it until we land. During The Magical Express ride back to the airport, there are tears but the ride gives us time to discuss our NEXT TRIP to Disney. No wants to see children cry. How many new reservations are agreed upon during the ride back to the airport on THE MAGICAL EXPRESS. DO NOT ELIMINATE THE MAGICAL EXPRESS.
Ronald says
Do not eliminate THE MAGICAL EXPRESS. Receiving our tags in the mail is Magical. Not being concerned about our luggage is Magical. The ride to the hotel is Magical. The return ride to the airport is generally filled with tears however it gives us an opportunity to plan our next trip to Disney World. No parent or grandparent wants to see a child cry. DO NOT ELIMINATE THE MAGICAL EXPRESS.