It’s important to be prepared for anything that could happen during your Disney World vacation.
Dark Clouds over Disney World
From losing your keys to unexpected ride closures, you’re likely to encounter at least a couple of bumps along the way during your trip. One of the most common can be bad weather, which can be very difficult to predict accurately (especially in Orlando, and especially during the summer months). This year, it looks like we’re in for a few major storms as the hurricane season approaches. Check out the predictions for the 2022 hurricane season here.
AccuWeather is predicting another active hurricane season in 2022, similar to what we saw in 2020 and 2021. The official start to the season is June 1st, although some early tropical storms have caused the National Hurricane Center to “consider moving the season’s start date to May 15th.” The season is expected to last through November 30th.
Hurricane Day in Disney World
The last 2 years have seen very active hurricane seasons, with both reaching “unprecedented levels” of storms and causing meteorologists to use up the whole list of designated storm names for each year. 2020 had 30 named storms, and 2021 had 21. Even some of the years before 2020 have been unusually active, with the last year that had a below-normal number of storms being 2015.
Epcot Storm Clouds
2022 is expected to bring another high number of hurricanes. AccuWeather is forecasting around 16 to 20 named storms and 6 to 8 hurricanes for the season. They expect 3 to 5 of the hurricanes to reach “major hurricane status,” meaning they’ll have Category 3 strength and winds with speeds of 111 MPH or higher.
©AccuWeather
Meteorologists have also already picked out the names for this year’s storms, with the first few being called Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. If the list is all used up, they’ll create new names for the additional storms.
©AccuWeather
Researchers at Colorado State University are also predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2022. They predict 19 named storms and 9 hurricanes, with 4 of the hurricanes expected to be major. For reference, a normal hurricane season has 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of #ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantichttps://t.co/uauRVHEjql pic.twitter.com/7dzsFjQBN9
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 7, 2022
These predictions look very similar to the 2021 season. One of the factors that influences the forecasts is higher-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, which are considered “critical areas for early season development.” These warm waters are usually present when it comes to the development of tropical storms.
©AccuWeather
Some of the areas that are predicted to be affected by the storm include the southeast Texas coast, Florida (particularly the panhandle area), and the Carolinas coastline. Experts are urging residents of these areas and others along the coast to prepare early for the potential storms.
Rainy day in EPCOT
Hurricane predictions for 2022 have now also been made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Just like the sources noted above, NOAA is predicting an “above-normal” hurricane season in 2022 for the Atlantic. They note that this would actually mark the 7th consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA has predicted a 65% change of an above-normal season, and has forecasted a likely range of 14-21 named storms, of which 6-10 could become hurricanes, including 3-6 which could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5). NOAA shared that they’ve provided these ranges with a 70% confidence.
The increased activity for the 2022 hurricane season is, according to NOAA, due to a number of factors including the ongoing La Nina, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, and other things.
©️NOAA
Disney World does have precautions in place for hurricane season. During last year’s active season, we saw some restaurants offering hurricane meal kits, and the parks have closed in the past due to extreme weather.
Storm Clouds
We’ll keep an eye on the forecast and let you know about new developments. Stay tuned with DFB for the latest news that could impact your upcoming Disney vacation.
Click here for 8 tips on how to ride out a hurricane in Disney World.
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What?
The last 2 years haven’t been active in Florida at all. And without fail, they’ve been PREDICTING active seasons for the last ten years…but it means nothing:
What happens in Africa means nothing as to where anything will impact the U.S.
We were down there like 5 or 6 years ago and a hurricane or the remnets came thru. We were staying at Saratoga, by 7 p.m. or so there was no food left. We were assured if all of this blew over they would be open in the morning. Nope. Friends were staying at GF and had walked to the Poly, their quick serve had food. So we drove over there, only to be told by the extremely rude gate guard that the food there was ONLY for the people at the Poly and no one else. Got friends room #, drove over to GF, parked in DVC lot and walked over to Poly. There were no signs that the food at the quick serve was ONLY for the poly guests, so we ate and visited with our friends.
What a strange coincident, the list of names is the same as the most popular children’s for 2022. However, I don’t care for Hermine so much.